Knock-Out BlackJack "The Rookie System"

Note: The excerpt that follows originally appeared in Casino Player magazine. It is part of a new chapter in Knock-Out Blackjack which describes the easiest-to-use version of the K-O system: K-O Rookie. The introduction that precedes it was written by Anthony Curtis, who is the president of Huntington Press, the book's publisher. Introduction (by Anthony Curtis) In November 1986, I'd reached what was then the pinnacle of the career I'd chosen for myself. I'd just earned the unofficial title of "the world's greatest blackjack player" by winning the Las Vegas Hilton's "World Matchplay Blackjack Championship." There were congratulations all around. Champagne flowed. And the $76,000 winner's check helped to validate the moment. Of course, I wasn't really the world's greatest player. The Matchplay Blackjack Championship was the most skill-oriented blackjack tournament ever engineered, and I'd won it. But it was still just one tournament on one day. No matter; I was a 28-year-old on top of the world, and I could trace my good fortune back to one little book handed to me a dozen years earlier. I was a sophomore in high school when a friend of the family gave me the book How to Win at Blackjack by Einstein. (Not Albert. Charles.) I read it, understood it, and embarked on my great blackjack adventure. I quickly devoured Thorp, Revere, Andersen, Wong, Griffin, and Uston, finally settling on Uston's Advanced Point Count for my counting system. It was a 3-level multi-parameter monster! Tussling with all the elements of this powerful but complicated system made me realize why the casinos weren't overrun by people like me. To master the Uston APC, I found it necessary to go into a form of Rocky Balboa training mode, practicing daily with stopwatches, flashcards, and stacks of playing cards to perfect my ability to calculate the all-important "true count." I conquered the beast, but I knew it was unreasonable to expect a "normal" person to take it as far as I did (which is why the casinos love those blackjack books). Through the years I've had occasion to talk to lots of blackjack players who've confirmed my early assessment. Most players learn basic strategy and no more. The problem is, basic strategy alone cannot overcome the house edge. To do that, you have to alter your bets so that you wager more when you have the advantage. Money management can't tell you when you have the edge. The only way to know that is to count cards! Two years ago, Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs self-published a great book called Knock-Out Blackjack. Their system uncomplicated the card-counting process in several ways, the most important of which was eliminating the necessity for the difficult true-count conversion. Finally, here was a count that could be implemented by mere mortals. I was so intrigued with their approach that my publishing company acquired the rights to Knock-Out Blackjack. The Huntington Press edition of Knock-Out Blackjack contains a completely new chapter outlining an easier-than-ever-to-use system called "K-O Rookie." With this technique you can improve your blackjack skills immediately. Imagine: A proven card-counting system that anyone can handle that can actually give you an advantage over the casinos. And here's the big kicker: We're going to give it all to you right here! The Knock-Out Rookie System The excerpt that follows is the complete Chapter 5 from Knock-Out Blackjack (preceded by necessary supporting information from earlier chapters and edited slightly for brevity). Nothing is held back; for the first time ever, you can learn to count cards by reading a single magazine article. We recommend that you purchase the book, which will clarify the technique and enhance your results. But in truth, the information presented here, along with a little practice, is all you need. Knock-Out Blackjack- The Easiest Card-Counting System Ever Devised by Olaf Vancura and Ken Fuchs The first step in any card-counting system is assigning values to the respective cards. The unbalanced Knock-Out system employs the following card-counting values:

Card	Knock-Out Value
2	+1
3	+1
4	+1
5	+1
6	+1
7	+1
8	0
9	0
10, Jack, Queen, King	-1
Ace	-1

The astute reader will immediately notice that there are more "+" than "-" designations. That's because the sum of the card tags does not equal zero. And that's why the K-O system is referred to as unbalanced. Since the count values are restricted to +1, 0, or -1 and each card has only one value associated with it, the K-O system is a true "level-1" system. A level-1 system allows for fast count-ing of a blackjack table full of cards. Combinations of cards that cancel to zero are easy to spot and eliminate from consideration. The suits of the cards are not considered, so a mere glance at a card is sufficient to determine its card-counting value. To become a proficient card counter, you need to memorize the Knock-Out values of each card. In game conditions, you must be able to recall each Knock-Out value instantly. Learning to Keep the K-O Running Count The Knock-Out system requires only that you maintain a "running count." To do this, you must continually update it according to the cards that you see played. Based on the previous table, you add 1 for each low card (2, 3, 4, 5, 6, or 7), and subtract 1 for each high card (10, jack, queen, king, or ace) that you see. The running count is the important count that you need to remember, even during and in-between hands, and keep updating until the next shuffle. The running count begins at a point called the "initial running count" (IRC), which varies according to the number of decks being used. The IRCs for different games are listed below. Four Steps to Keeping the K-O Running Count To achieve proficiency at maintaining the running count, we recommend the following steps: 1. Memorize the Knock-Out card-counting value associated with each card. Your recognition of the values of the card tags should be as natural as telling time. It should become ingrained and second nature. You should be able to recall the card-counting values without pausing. You should be able to look at a card and recall its value of +1, 0, or -1 without hesitation. Begin with a deck of shuffled cards. As you turn each card over, recall its Knock-Out value. (Note: You don't want to recite it aloud, as this could lead to the troublesome habit of mouthing the count.) For example, for a sequence of cards 3, 5, king, 2, 8, queen, you would silently think +1, +1, -1, +1, 0, -1. 2. Count through an entire deck one card at a time and keep a running count. For a single deck, the IRC is zero. As each card is turned over, you need to recall its value and add that to the running count. Again, this must be done completely silently and with no lip movement. If you make no mistakes, your running count will be +4 at the end of the deck. For the example above, the same sequence of cards would be counted in the following fashion:

Single Card	K-O Value	Running Count
3	+1	+1
5	+1	+2
King	- 1	+1
2	+1	+2
8	0	+2
Queen	-1	+1

3. Practice with pairs of cards. When you've become comfortable keeping the count, practice by turning the cards over two at a time and determining the net count for each pair of cards. For example, a hand of jack and ace (a blackjack) has a net count equal to (-1) + (-1) = -2. Two tens also have a net Knock-Out count value of -2. A stiff total of 16 made up of Q,6 has a net count equal to (-1) + (+1) = 0. Practice this until counting pairs is second-nature and you don't need to do the addition. Strive to recognize pairs that cancel to zero, such as 10,2, Q,4, A,5, etc. This canceling technique will save you a great deal of effort and greatly increase your speed. 4. Count through an entire deck in pairs while keeping a running count. Turning two cards over at a time, you need to recognize (not calculate) their net Knock-Out value, and add it to the run-ning count. For our card sequence above, we would count in the following fashion:

Pair of Cards	Net K-O Value	Running Count
3,5	+2	+2
K,2	0	+2
8,Q	-1	+1

How fast do you need to be? A good rule of thumb, no matter which card-counting system you use, is to be able to count down an entire deck of cards in 25 to 30 seconds. Many beginners find the prospect of counting an entire deck in 30 seconds a bit daunting. Don't worry. Once you master the technique of netting (and canceling) two cards at a time, you'll literally fly through the deck. In a short amount of time, counting cards will become as easy as reading. Once you can count one deck, the transition to multiple decks isn't difficult. The only change is the new value for the initial running count, which is necessary to ensure that you always end up with a final running count of +4. We recommend practicing with the number of decks that you will most often play against. For example, if you live on the East Coast and frequent Atlantic City or Foxwoods, you'll be best served practicing for the 6- and 8-deck shoes that you'll encounter in those destinations. The same is true for patrons of Midwestern and Southern riverboat casinos. On the other hand, visitors to Nevada will have a choice of several different games, and may want to become proficient counting both single and multiple decks. Note: Use the K-O Training Camp Card Counting Drill to help gain the skill and speed necessary to count using the K-O count. The Knock-Out System-Rookie The K-O Rookie system is a streamlined ultra-simple manifestation of the K-O technique. But it's also something more. In the purest sense, K-O Rookie is the essence of winning blackjack. That's because winning at blackjack, more than anything else, is about bet variation-betting a lot when you have the advantage and betting a little when you don't. The K-O Rookie system shows you how to do exactly that. Two subsets of players will benefit from this incarnation of the K-O counting system. The first consists of novice counters who find the initiation into the casino environment somewhat overwhelming. Playing "for real," with real money and real distractions, often turns out to be quite daunting. Because of this, card counters making their debut in casinos sometimes do better starting with an extremely simple approach. The second subset comprises a much larger group. It's made up of thousands of players who have learned (or partially learned) basic strategy, but either can't or won't learn to count cards; they've been convinced that counting is too difficult. Many of these players know intuitively that in order to win they have to raise their bets at some point during play-if they don't, the house edge will grind them down and, eventually, out. But at what point do you raise? The only time it's truly correct to raise your bet is when you have an advantage over the house, and those times can only be identified by counting cards. Since most players don't count, they turn to other means to guide their betting. Most rely on money-management" techniques. There's only one problem with this approach: it doesn't work. You cannot overcome the casino's advantage at blackjack with bet variation that isn't correlated with the count. Blackjack players using basic strategy along with such betting systems can expect to lose at a rate equal to the house advantage-no more and no less. Knock-Out Rookie is a betting system, too. But it's a choreographed system that is correlated with the count. By combining perfect basic strategy play and the ability to keep the running count with the betting advice in this chapter, you can play blackjack with an advantage. Here's how. The Key Count The "key count" is the count at which the player first has the advantage; reaching it signifies that it's a favorable time to raise your bet. Count the cards according to the K-O values, monitoring the running count as you play. We bet small when the running count is below the key count, and bet big when it's at or above the key count. It's that simple. There are only two bets, small and large, and the key count is the point that separates them. The chart below lists the two crucial numbers you need to know: the initial running count and the key count. Knock-Out System Standard IRCs and Key Counts

Conditions	IRC	Key Count
1 deck	0	+2
2 decks	-4	+1
6 decks	-20	-4
8 decks	-28	-6

What constitutes big and small in your betting scheme? It's a matter of personal preference, as well as a function of your gambling bankroll, your aversion to risk, and so forth. You might choose the table minimum, say $5, for your small bet. A $5 wager thus represents a 1-unit bet. Your big bet will then be the multiple of $5 that you choose. For example, if your big bet is $25 (5 X $5), you'll be employing a "1-5 spread." A Complete System In essence, we now have the makings of a complete blackjack system. For playing we use the basic strategy. For betting, we use the K-O card-counting method and bet one of two values: We wager 1 unit below the key count, and an amount greater than 1 unit at or above the key count. Everything else about how we play the game remains the same. We've dubbed this system "K-O Rookie" because it's the most basic application of the concept of varying your bet according to the count. Still, with a big enough "jump" in the bet, it's enough to beat the game. How well do we fare with the K-O Rookie system? The table below portrays the theoretical results. The table shows a spread of 1 unit to 2, 5, or 10 units. For example, in a single-deck game (with benchmark rules common in casinos) where you spread from 1 unit below the key count to 5 units at or above the key count, your expectation is .88% of your basic unit. Expectation (in %) for K-O Rookie

Decks	1-2	1-5	1-10
1	.20	.88	1.24
2	.07	.69	1.05
6	-.15	.26	.54
8	-.22	.16	.43

These results are quite impressive. An expectation of .88% means that, in the long run, you will win at a rate equal to .88% of the total initial amount of money wagered. That's close to a $7-per-hour expected return for a player who's small bet is $5 and big bet is $25. As you can see from the table, greater spreads correspond to higher win percentages. Unfortunately, you may not be able to get away with highly profitable bet spreads for long. Moving wagers directly from 1 unit to 5 units in hand-held games and 1 to 10 in shoes is about the outside limit for bet variation, unless you have a very good "act." And even at these levels, casinos may soon identify you as a winning player and take action to limit your effectiveness. You may even be barred from playing altogether. (The casino vs. player cat-and-mouse game is covered in detail elsewhere in Knock-Out Blackjack.) Even at less-profitable spreads, however, K-O Rookie will get you close to break-even or better. It's highly unlikely that anyone will stop you from going 1-2 in hand-held or 1-5 in shoe games. Even with these modest bet variations, you're no longer the underdog. You can play blackjack with an expectation of making money. Remember, there are no strategy plays to learn; this betting method and basic strategy represent the complete Rookie version of the Knock-Out system. Casual players may not want to go any further. Fluctuation Proviso As counters, we have the advantage when betting and playing properly. However, this does not mean that we will win each and every time we play. Consider craps, which (for the pass line wager) has a player expectation of -1.4%. Despite this disadvantage, players sometimes win at craps in the short run. Indeed, if players never won while gambling, casinos would cease to exist. The point, however, is that in the long run, a crap player must lose. In blackjack, the situation is reversed. While we know that we must win in the long run, in the short run we'll have fluctuations and sustain losing sessions. We must be careful, therefore, not to "overbet," lest we lose our bankroll during these negative swings. We want to be sure that we remain in the game for the long run. To do this, you must always bet within your means. Though many players decide how to bet based on "what they think they can get away with," severe caveats are in order for this approach. Unless your bankroll is sufficiently large to war-rant this high frequency of maximum wagers, you will almost certainly go broke eventually by implementing an arbitrarily large jump spread. It's true that the bigger the jump spread you employ, the higher your expectation will be. But, an arbitrary jump spread with no regard for the size of your bankroll should be attempted only if you honestly don't mind losing the entire stake. A good rule of thumb is to limit your maximum bet to no more than 1% of your total blackjack bankroll. For example, if your bankroll is $10,000, then your max bet might be $100. Keeping your maximum bet below 1% of your bankroll should reduce your risk of ruin to an acceptable level. We can't emphasize enough the danger of betting too much, even when you have the advantage. The K-O Rookie in Game Conditions Let's assume you're playing head-up (just you and the dealer) in a 2-deck game. For a double deck, the IRC is -4 and the key count is +1. You're employing the K-O Rookie system with a unit of $5 and a spread of 1 to 3 units. The dealer shuffles and you're ready to go. At the start, the running count is the same as the initial running count of -4, so you bet just $5. The cards come out and you're dealt 5,6 while the dealer has a 4 up. Following basic strategy, you double down, and receive a 9 for a total of 20. The dealer turns over the downcard, a queen, and draws an 8 to bust. You win $10 ($5 for the original wager and $5 for the double). The running count is now -2. Because the running count of -2 is still below the key count, you again bet $5. This time you're dealt 8,8 and the dealer has a 6 up. As prescribed by the basic strategy, you split your 8s. On the first hand you're dealt a jack and stand. On the second you receive a 5 and stand. The dealer turns over a 6 (for a total of 12) and hits the hand with a 7 for a total of 19. You lose $10 ($5 on each of your split hands) this round. Now the running count is +1, which is equal to the key count. You have the advantage. You go ahead and bet $15. May the cards be with you! What Does It Mean? Blackjack played according to basic strategy leaves the player with an expected loss ranging from about .2% for the most common Las Vegas single-deck game to about .5% for the standard Atlantic City 8-decker. Betting according to the K-O count with a bet spread as small as 1-5 units provides basic-strategy players with an advantage, even when playing an 8-deck shoe. If every player were to employ only this Rookie version of the K-O system, the casinos would be forced to either change the game of blackjack, or stop offering it altogether. By adding playing and betting enhancements to the K-O system (covered in the book), the expected results rise dramatically.